Sports betting success often times comes down to knowing the personalities of the teams that are playing. One aspect of a team’s personality is how well they play on artificial turf compared to natural grass. Here’s an analysis I did of a game between Ball St. and Toledo that exemplifies how to use this information to make money:
This game matches up two teams that have put up a lot of points, and have given up a lot of points this season. Ball State is averaging 27 points on offense, while averaging giving up 28 points on defense. Toledo is giving up even more points on defense, 29 per game, while “only” averaging scoring 23 points per game.
Ball State has managed to cover 6 out of 9 games this year, even though they have a lousy 3-7 SU record. But their ATS record doesn’t include a game that they lost SU to N. Dakota St. For accuracy sake, let’s count this game against Ball St., making their “real” ATS record 6-4.
But here’s an interesting fact relating to tonight’s game. Ball St., who plays their home games on grass, has a surprisingly great record playing on artificial turf. In their last 10 games, Ball St. is 8-2 ATS on artificial turf, including SU upsets against Miami (OH), E. Michigan, N. Illinois (a game where Ball St. was a 28-point dog), and W. Michigan (a game where Ball St. was an 11 1/2-point dog).
Ball State has beaten the line by a whopping 17 points per game! And all of these upsets happened when Ball St. was playing away on artificial turf.
On the other hand, Ball St. has played 10 road games on natural grass since 2002, and they’ve lost 9 out of 10 SU, and are only 4-6 ATS on grass playing away from home. Do you see a pattern here? Do you think maybe Ball St.’s team is more suited for playing on artificial turf than on grass?
Even against #2 Michigan, Ball State QB Nate Davis and speedy wideout Darius Love had big games, with Davis throwing for for 250 yards, and Love having over 100 yards in receiving, including over a 17 yard average per catch. There’s no reason that Davis and Love shouldn’t have a similar game against Toledo, a team that’s averaged giving up over 400 total yards per game. The fact that this game is being played on artificial turf
The bottom line on this game is that Ball State has a legitimate chance to win outright. The fact that they’re getting 5-points may be a bonus.
The downside is that Ball St. was creamed by Toledo each of the last two seasons, losing in 2005 by a score of 34-14, and losing in 2004 by a score of 52-14. I know this is 2006, not 2004 or 2005, but when you look at a recent history that’s been so one-sided, you can see why everybody expects Toledo to win this game. The end result is that these factors tend to even out, with only a slight edge going to Ball St.
I’d lean to Ball State to cover with Ball St. upsetting Toledo 34-31. But again, keep in mind, that there is nothing to make me think that this is a very high probability play.
Ball State actually DID upset Toledo in this game, winning 20-17. Just by understanding Ball St.’s record on artificial turf, people interested in sports betting might have made a lot of money betting on this game.
David James is one of the world’s foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting.