Have you ever wondered how the sports betting “smart money” became the smart money? Do you wonder what the football betting smart money does differently than the amateurs?
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To understand the answer to those questions, you can analyze how I went 10-1 last week with my sports betting selections. To best understand how I do this, let’s just look at the analysis for one game: Idaho at Hawaii. Here was my analysis:
Idaho at Hawaii -26
Wow… Hawaii’s offense has been hard to stop this season. There only weakness that I spotted is that their punter averaged ZERO yards kicking last week…. Oh wait a minute… what’s that? That’s because he didn’t have to punt last week…. Nevermind. Hawaii’s QB, Colton Brennan was 22-31 for 330 yards last week, and has thrown for 14 TD’s and 1158 yards in his last THREE games. I remember when season stats like that used to get a QB All-American honors.
Did I mention that Hawaii is averaging 46 points a game in their last 6 games? Hawaii is also on a 15-6 run, and 9-1 as a favorite. For some more esoteric stats, Hawaii is also 10-1 in their 2nd conference games, and 7-1 coming home after two road games.
Idaho has played well, but it’s going to be too much to ask their defense to stop the Rainbows… er um, Warriors this week (personally I liked them better as the Rainbows). And keep in mind that Idaho is a very poor 7-13 ATS in their last twenty games as a double-digit dog. This means that when their up against a better team, the public underestimates how much of a mismatch the game really is. Look for Hawaii to win, 52-20
The actual final score was 68-10. Not a bad forecast for a game, right? How was I able to do this?
Simple. I just used some common sense along with a bit of historical data. Keep in mind that the only way to correctly handicap sporting events is to use both current analysis combined with past historical results. One or the other alone won’t help you make any money in football betting.
The way to be successful at handicapping games and to make money with sports betting, one must look at both historical patterns and current match-ups. In this case, the history pointed to a big win for Hawaii. The fact that the current Idaho team couldn’t match-up well against Hawaii’s offense was the deciding factor.
David James is one of the world’s foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting.
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